Will Vox win the second-most seats in Toledo in the 2026 Spanish general election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 67¢ · $220 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$219.58
-$1.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $82.33 | $74.81 | -$1.21 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.2¢ | $33.73 | $41.72 | +$8.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $43.18 | $33.09 | -$10.09 | |
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $55.7 | $53.95 | +$3.91 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $25.57 | $31.15 | +$5.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $25.3 | $22.8 | -$1.84 | |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $47.25 | $50.25 | +$3 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $29.6 | $24.8 | -$4.8 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $13.11 | $13.72 | +$0.61 | 39% 1309-2008 (3317) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $1.96 | $2.05 | +$0.09 | 37% 3224-5382 (8606) |
Invested
$82.33
Value
$74.81
PnL
-$1.21
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Both legs:
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$55.7
Value
$53.95
PnL
+$3.91
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.25
Value
$50.25
PnL
+$3
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$29.6
Value
$24.8
PnL
-$4.8
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$13.11
Value
$13.72
PnL
+$0.61
Record
39%
1309-2008 (3317)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.09
Record
37%
3224-5382 (8606)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.