Will Vox win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 87¢ · $581 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$580.51
-$17.44
88.3¢ → 87.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 88.4¢ | $273.71 | $271.05 | -$2.66 | 41% 3107-4462 (7569) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 88.1¢ | $231.21 | $229.68 | -$1.53 | 51% 32-31 (63) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $34.23 | $33.97 | -$0.27 | 53% 5633-5071 (10704) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $27.62 | $27.14 | -$0.48 | 4% 1-26 (27) |
 theta-thunbergCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $31.17 | $18.67 | -$12.5 | — 0-8 (8) |
Invested
$273.71
Value
$271.05
PnL
-$2.66
Record
41%
3107-4462 (7569)
HaradwaithInvested
$231.21
Value
$229.68
PnL
-$1.53
Record
51%
32-31 (63)
Invested
$34.23
Value
$33.97
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
5633-5071 (10704)
Invested
$27.62
Value
$27.14
PnL
-$0.48
Record
4%
1-26 (27)
theta-thunbergCTR<$100Invested
$31.17
Value
$18.67
PnL
-$12.5
Record
—
0-8 (8)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.