Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 73¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$235.42
$16.33
68.8¢ → 72.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $87.93 | $96.93 | +$9 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 71.1¢ | $41.69 | $42.51 | +$0.82 | 52% 5263-4776 (10039) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $37 | $36.25 | -$0.75 | 35% 2848-5314 (8162) |
 Ryxon21CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $17.07 | $18.05 | +$0.98 | 2% 1-57 (58) |
 broskye<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $14.98 | $15.59 | +$0.61 | 42% 174-238 (412) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $51.34 | $14.75 | +$5.9 | — 3-6 (9) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $11.58 | $11.35 | -$0.23 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
Invested
$87.93
Value
$96.93
PnL
+$9
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$41.69
Value
$42.51
PnL
+$0.82
Record
52%
5263-4776 (10039)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37
Value
$36.25
PnL
-$0.75
Record
35%
2848-5314 (8162)
Ryxon21CTR<$100Invested
$17.07
Value
$18.05
PnL
+$0.98
Record
2%
1-57 (58)
broskye<$100Invested
$14.98
Value
$15.59
PnL
+$0.61
Record
42%
174-238 (412)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$51.34
Value
$14.75
PnL
+$5.9
Record
—
3-6 (9)
balthazar<$100Invested
$11.58
Value
$11.35
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.