Will Vox win 76 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$486.87
$10.81
89.1¢ → 92¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 86.8¢ | $195.27 | $195.75 | +$0.48 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $156.38 | $149.52 | -$6.86 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $68.1 | $68.1 | +$0 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $52.4 | $56.55 | +$4.15 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.91 | $16.95 | +$13.04 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
Invested
$195.27
Value
$195.75
PnL
+$0.48
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$156.38
Value
$149.52
PnL
-$6.86
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
balthazar<$100Invested
$68.1
Value
$68.1
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$52.4
Value
$56.55
PnL
+$4.15
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
$16.95
PnL
+$13.04
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.