Will Vox win 61-65 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 79¢ · $533 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$532.64
-$32.67
82.1¢ → 78.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 76.8¢ | $223.58 | $226.07 | +$2.49 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $192.25 | $173.25 | -$19 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 87¢ | $140.63 | $124.46 | -$16.16 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $4.45 | $4.45 | +$0 | 48% 96-103 (199) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $4.4 | $4.4 | +$0 | 12% 25-176 (201) |
Invested
$223.58
Value
$226.07
PnL
+$2.49
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$192.25
Value
$173.25
PnL
-$19
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$140.63
Value
$124.46
PnL
-$16.16
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
96-103 (199)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
25-176 (201)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.