Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 89¢ · $473 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$472.87
$5.93
93.4¢ → 88.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $210.9 | $211.5 | +$0.6 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 94¢ | $151.94 | $151.94 | +$0 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $74.6 | $74.6 | +$0 | 51% 4670-4532 (9202) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $16.68 | $18.89 | +$2.21 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $9.4 | +$0 | 48% 90-97 (187) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.42 | $6.53 | +$3.12 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
Invested
$210.9
Value
$211.5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$151.94
Value
$151.94
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
balthazar<$100Invested
$74.6
Value
$74.6
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4670-4532 (9202)
Invested
$16.68
Value
$18.89
PnL
+$2.21
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
90-97 (187)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$3.12
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.