Will Vox receive between 20% and 22% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$154.82
76¢ → 79¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 77.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$41.12 | — 5-1 (6) |
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $510.66 | $412.64 | +$6.72 | 55% 48-39 (87) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $322.42 | $323.21 | +$0.79 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.9¢ | $82.73 | $89.43 | +$5.94 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 70¢ | $249.96 | $281.11 | +$31.15 | 41% 3158-4508 (7666) |
 Ryxon21CTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $190 | $255 | +$65 | 2% 1-57 (58) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $178.36 | $195.9 | +$17.54 | 39% 1055-1631 (2686) |
viniiInvested
$2,076.88
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$41.12
Record
—
5-1 (6)
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$510.66
Value
$412.64
PnL
+$6.72
Record
55%
48-39 (87)
Both legs:
Invested
$249.96
Value
$281.11
PnL
+$31.15
Record
41%
3158-4508 (7666)
Ryxon21CTRInvested
$190
Value
$255
PnL
+$65
Record
2%
1-57 (58)
Invested
$178.36
Value
$195.9
PnL
+$17.54
Record
39%
1055-1631 (2686)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.