Will voter turnout be between 62% and 64% in the 2026 Spanish general election?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $98 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$98.14
-$10.89
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.76 | $29.1 | -$0.66 | 38% 317-524 (841) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $20.73 | $20.37 | -$0.36 | 30% 1175-2733 (3908) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.4 | +$0 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.7 | $9.7 | +$0 | 42% 1694-2332 (4026) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.39 | $9.69 | +$0.3 | 88% 21-3 (24) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $5.82 | $5.82 | +$0 | 38% 3808-6231 (10039) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $12.48 | $3.56 | -$8.93 | 29% 308-740 (1048) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $1.34 | $0.38 | -$0.96 | 40% 2676-3963 (6639) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $0.42 | $0.12 | -$0.3 | 39% 327-521 (848) |
Invested
$29.76
Value
$29.1
PnL
-$0.66
Record
38%
317-524 (841)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$20.37
PnL
-$0.36
Record
30%
1175-2733 (3908)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$9.7
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1694-2332 (4026)
vinii<$100Invested
$9.39
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$0.3
Record
88%
21-3 (24)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3808-6231 (10039)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$12.48
Value
$3.56
PnL
-$8.93
Record
29%
308-740 (1048)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.96
Record
40%
2676-3963 (6639)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.3
Record
39%
327-521 (848)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.