Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $298 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$298.4
-$60.87
99.1¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
744h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.9¢ | $184.12 | $184.68 | +$0.47 | 77% 11689-3583 (15272) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.02 | $85.61 | -$0.29 | 56% 3734-2961 (6695) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $9.79 | -$30.33 | 56% 839-647 (1486) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $30.02 | $8.62 | -$21.39 | 35% 16909-31257 (48166) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $13.05 | $8.18 | -$4.88 | 50% 987-1001 (1988) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.41 | $0.95 | -$4.46 | 25% 180-537 (717) |
Invested
$184.12
Value
$184.68
PnL
+$0.47
Record
77%
11689-3583 (15272)
Invested
$5.02
Value
$85.61
PnL
-$0.29
Record
56%
3734-2961 (6695)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$9.79
PnL
-$30.33
Record
56%
839-647 (1486)
Invested
$30.02
Value
$8.62
PnL
-$21.39
Record
35%
16909-31257 (48166)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$13.05
Value
$8.18
PnL
-$4.88
Record
50%
987-1001 (1988)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$4.46
Record
25%
180-537 (717)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.