Will Vojislav Šešelj win the next Serbia presidential election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $134 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$134.03
-$6.04
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $112.85 | $98.84 | -$14.01 | 45% 1847-2279 (4126) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $17.07 | $15.68 | -$1.38 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.79 | $13.37 | +$3.59 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.08 | $5 | +$4.92 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.29 | $1.14 | +$0.84 | 77% 11162-3417 (14579) |
Invested
$112.85
Value
$98.84
PnL
-$14.01
Record
45%
1847-2279 (4126)
Invested
$17.07
Value
$15.68
PnL
-$1.38
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
Invested
$9.79
Value
$13.37
PnL
+$3.59
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.92
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.84
Record
77%
11162-3417 (14579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.