Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 99¢ · $220 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$220.1
-$82.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
218h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99¢ | $185.92 | $186.62 | +$0.7 | 77% 11700-3588 (15288) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $33.67 | $12.83 | -$45.54 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.05 | $8.4 | -$1.3 | 21% 2286-8721 (11007) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $40.12 | $7.96 | -$32.16 | 56% 839-648 (1487) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $2.8 | $3.52 | +$0.72 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.41 | $0.77 | -$4.64 | 25% 185-554 (739) |
Invested
$185.92
Value
$186.62
PnL
+$0.7
Record
77%
11700-3588 (15288)
Invested
$33.67
Value
$12.83
PnL
-$45.54
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$1.3
Record
21%
2286-8721 (11007)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$40.12
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$32.16
Record
56%
839-648 (1487)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$3.52
PnL
+$0.72
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$4.64
Record
25%
185-554 (739)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.