Will Vitality Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$54.79

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 61.5¢

-6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,338

Combined PnL-$54.79

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 65.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$49.5	66% 4095-2118 (6213)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$69.28	$66.07	-$3.21	41% 3102-4461 (7563)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 64¢	$43.68	$43	-$0.68	51% 4602-4505 (9107)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$20.5	$20.42	-$0.07	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 66¢	$19.8	$18.9	-$0.9	29% 871-2138 (3009)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.2	$18.9	-$0.3	27% 923-2513 (3436)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 63¢	$18.9	$18.9	+$0	40% 1444-2158 (3602)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$7.15	$7.13	-$0.02	47% 309-342 (651)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.53	$6.43	-$0.1	46% 320-373 (693)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.1	$6.1	+$0	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 63¢	$4.65	$4.65	+$0	— 2-14 (16)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 63¢	$2.74	$2.74	+$0	30% 2654-6198 (8852)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,309.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$49.5

Record

66%

4095-2118 (6213)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$69.28

Value

$66.07

PnL

-$3.21

Record

41%

3102-4461 (7563)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$43.68

Value

$43

PnL

-$0.68

Record

51%

4602-4505 (9107)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

871-2138 (3009)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

27%

923-2513 (3436)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1444-2158 (3602)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

309-342 (651)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.53

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

320-373 (693)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0

Record

—

2-14 (16)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$2.74

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.