Will Viper have the most kills at Worlds 2026?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $199 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$198.95

Combined PnL

-$4.66

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$198.37

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$1.04

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.57

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$3.62

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$119.76	$119.88	+$0.12	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$55.16	$27.15	-$1	39% 3706-5907 (9613)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.24	$17.23	-$0.02	58% 765-561 (1326)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$27.49	$13.32	-$0.13	49% 816-837 (1653)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	32% 281-585 (866)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.06	$7.06	-$0.01	51% 867-820 (1687)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.75	$3.74	-$0	52% 830-759 (1589)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.45	$0.31	-$1.15	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
KO korda77CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$142.78	$0.14	-$1.75	24% 108-347 (455)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.35	$0.08	-$0.57	26% 565-1641 (2206)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.19	$0.04	-$0.15	17% 92-443 (535)

cigarettes

Invested

$119.76

Value

$119.88

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$55.16

Value

$27.15

PnL

-$1

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.24

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$27.49

Value

$13.32

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.15

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

korda77CTR

Yes

Invested

$142.78

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.75

Record

24%

108-347 (455)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.57

Record

26%

565-1641 (2206)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.15

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.