Will Vietnam win the public vote for Eurovision Asia 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $265 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$265.5

Combined PnL

-$3.01

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 98.3¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$264.49

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$3.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.01

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.38

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$53.42	$51.74	-$1.68	39% 3645-5777 (9422)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$39.36	$38.54	-$0.82	30% 243-579 (822)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$39.36	$38.48	-$0.88	43% 5075-6626 (11701)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$29.4	+$0.9	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$25.69	$25.52	-$0.17	26% 692-1921 (2613)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$20.63	$20.23	-$0.4	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$19.74	$19.33	-$0.41	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$10.21	$10.04	-$0.17	51% 809-769 (1578)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.14	$9.95	+$0.38	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.04	$8.86	-$0.18	49% 789-829 (1618)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$6.73	$6.88	+$0.15	27% 1021-2711 (3732)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.63	$5.53	-$0.11	58% 726-520 (1246)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.63	$1.01	+$0.38	32% 168-365 (533)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$53.42

Value

$51.74

PnL

-$1.68

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

$38.54

PnL

-$0.82

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

$38.48

PnL

-$0.88

Record

43%

5075-6626 (11701)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$0.9

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$25.69

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$0.17

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$20.63

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$0.4

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.74

Value

$19.33

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$29.14

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.38

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$6.73

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.15

Record

27%

1021-2711 (3732)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.38

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.