Will Vietnam win Eurovision Asia 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $327 held · ends Nov 15

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$326.58

Combined PnL

$12.93

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 94.1¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$297.9

Total Shares311

Combined PnL+$2.92

Yes4 traders

Total Value$28.68

Total Shares546

Combined PnL+$10.01

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 92¢	$106.42	$112.03	+$5.61	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 96.6¢	$101.39	$98.75	-$2.64	27% 973-2599 (3572)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.1	$29.04	-$0.06	31% 221-498 (719)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$29.01	$29.04	+$0.03	30% 989-2362 (3351)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$19.98	$25.77	+$10.79	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$24.23	$24.2	-$0.03	27% 197-540 (737)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.83	$4.84	+$0.01	37% 165-281 (446)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$2.58	$1.05	-$1.53	8% 13-143 (156)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.61	$1.02	+$0.41	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.5	$0.84	+$0.34	45% 4955-6107 (11062)

cigarettes

Invested

$106.42

Value

$112.03

PnL

+$5.61

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

graynotebook19

Invested

$101.39

Value

$98.75

PnL

-$2.64

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$29.04

PnL

-$0.06

Record

31%

221-498 (719)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.01

Value

$29.04

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

989-2362 (3351)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.98

Value

$25.77

PnL

+$10.79

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$24.23

Value

$24.2

PnL

-$0.03

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

165-281 (446)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.58

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$1.53

Record

13-143 (156)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.41

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.34

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.