Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Victorian Psycho" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 35¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$139.56
-$5.4
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $110.25 | $96.93 | -$13.31 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $75.11 | $51.74 | -$23.37 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.1¢ | $35.14 | $45.2 | +$10.06 | |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $23.78 | $23.78 | +$0 | — |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $12.25 | $7.25 | -$5 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.2 | $5.8 | +$4.6 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $5.8 | -$5 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
Invested
$110.25
Value
$96.93
PnL
-$13.31
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.78
Value
$23.78
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$12.25
Value
$7.25
PnL
-$5
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$4.6
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$5.8
PnL
-$5
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.