Will "Victorian Psycho" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 89¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$103.31
$1.53
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $82.02 | $82.09 | +$0.07 | 6% 6-92 (98) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $49.67 | $7.7 | +$2.52 | 40% 3331-4971 (8302) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $5.13 | $4.81 | +$2.38 | 18% 822-3658 (4480) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $4.8 | $4.6 | -$0.2 | 53% 6255-5540 (11795) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $2.7 | $3.45 | +$0.75 | 21% 104-396 (500) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.65 | $0.66 | -$3.99 | 28% 977-2569 (3546) |
Invested
$82.02
Value
$82.09
PnL
+$0.07
Record
6%
6-92 (98)
Invested
$49.67
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$2.52
Record
40%
3331-4971 (8302)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$4.81
PnL
+$2.38
Record
18%
822-3658 (4480)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
6255-5540 (11795)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0.75
Record
21%
104-396 (500)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$3.99
Record
28%
977-2569 (3546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.