Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Victorian Psycho" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5.5m?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $258 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$257.84

Combined PnL

-$199.39

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 0.3¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$256.88

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$0.88

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.95

Total Shares951

Combined PnL-$200.27

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$88.47	$88.5	+$0.04	22% 117-411 (528)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.93	+$0	29% 928-2220 (3148)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$47.36	$47.95	+$0.59	45% 137-168 (305)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	40% 1508-2235 (3743)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.99	$10	+$0.01	46% 13-15 (28)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.32	$5.53	+$0.22	26% 909-2537 (3446)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$139.88	$0.7	-$139.18	46% 4888-5757 (10645)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25.49	$0.13	-$25.36	28% 536-1412 (1948)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$21.6	$0.11	-$21.49	26% 378-1084 (1462)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$62.08	$0.02	-$14.23	40% 3363-5001 (8364)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$88.47

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$0.04

Record

22%

117-411 (528)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

928-2220 (3148)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$47.36

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$0.59

Record

45%

137-168 (305)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

40%

1508-2235 (3743)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.22

Record

26%

909-2537 (3446)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.88

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$139.18

Record

46%

4888-5757 (10645)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.49

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$25.36

Record

28%

536-1412 (1948)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.6

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$21.49

Record

26%

378-1084 (1462)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.08

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.23

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.