Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Victorian Psycho" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4.5m?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $128 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$127.71

Combined PnL

-$293.82

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 0.9¢

-95% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$106.74

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$0.41

Yes7 traders

Total Value$20.97

Total Shares1,234

Combined PnL-$293.4

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$58.44	$57.59	-$0.84	29% 928-2220 (3148)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$39.32	$39.32	+$0	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$139.88	$11.89	-$127.99	46% 4888-5757 (10645)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.4	$9.83	+$0.43	45% 137-168 (305)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25.49	$2.17	-$23.32	28% 536-1412 (1948)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$21	$1.79	-$19.22	31% 155-351 (506)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$38.75	$1.76	-$36.91	30% 513-1189 (1702)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$38.75	$1.21	-$37.42	26% 361-1014 (1375)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$38.75	$1.21	-$37.42	28% 368-942 (1310)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$44.38	$0.96	-$11.12	40% 3363-5001 (8364)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$58.44

Value

$57.59

PnL

-$0.84

Record

29%

928-2220 (3148)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.32

Value

$39.32

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.88

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$127.99

Record

46%

4888-5757 (10645)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.43

Record

45%

137-168 (305)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.49

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$23.32

Record

28%

536-1412 (1948)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$19.22

Record

31%

155-351 (506)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.75

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$36.91

Record

30%

513-1189 (1702)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.75

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$37.42

Record

26%

361-1014 (1375)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.75

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$37.42

Record

28%

368-942 (1310)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.38

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$11.12

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4917.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

5017.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.