Will "Victorian Psycho" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3.5m?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$149.17
-$14.26
89.9¢ → 88.8¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VerilyWinningly | Noavg 90.4¢ | $151.87 | $53.31 | -$12.16 | 26% 378-1084 (1462) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $35.56 | $35.54 | -$0.02 | 53% 6255-5540 (11795) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $33.52 | $32.94 | -$0.57 | 6% 6-92 (98) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $27.37 | $27.09 | -$0.28 | 40% 3331-4971 (8302) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $4.21 | $0.28 | -$1.23 | 18% 822-3658 (4480) |
Invested
$151.87
Value
$53.31
PnL
-$12.16
Record
26%
378-1084 (1462)
Invested
$35.56
Value
$35.54
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
6255-5540 (11795)
Invested
$33.52
Value
$32.94
PnL
-$0.57
Record
6%
6-92 (98)
Invested
$27.37
Value
$27.09
PnL
-$0.28
Record
40%
3331-4971 (8302)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$1.23
Record
18%
822-3658 (4480)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.