Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Victorian Psycho" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 5.5m?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$194.81

Combined PnL

-$214.98

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 0.4¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$182.55

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$1.25

Yes4 traders

Total Value$12.27

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL-$216.23

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.86	$59.94	+$0.08	30% 941-2222 (3163)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$57.53	$58.54	+$1.01	44% 139-175 (314)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$58.47	$58.53	+$0.06	40% 1523-2262 (3785)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$110.04	$11.33	-$30.2	40% 3401-5040 (8441)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.43	$5.53	+$0.11	31% 139-308 (447)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$139.88	$0.7	-$139.18	46% 4900-5790 (10690)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25.49	$0.13	-$25.36	27% 543-1438 (1981)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$21.6	$0.11	-$21.49	26% 378-1084 (1462)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.86

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

941-2222 (3163)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$57.53

Value

$58.54

PnL

+$1.01

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$58.47

Value

$58.53

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40%

1523-2262 (3785)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.04

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$30.2

Record

40%

3401-5040 (8441)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.11

Record

31%

139-308 (447)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.88

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$139.18

Record

46%

4900-5790 (10690)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.49

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$25.36

Record

27%

543-1438 (1981)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.6

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$21.49

Record

26%

378-1084 (1462)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.