Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$0.99

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,482

Combined PnL+$65.78

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.86

Total Shares638

Combined PnL-$66.77

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

306h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$8.41	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.7¢	$624.62	$623.02	-$1.6	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.6¢	$479.1	$478.35	-$0.74	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 98.9¢	$393.03	$392.46	+$73.05	42% 10332-14359 (24691)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.5¢	$368.73	$358.07	-$0.25	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.7¢	$214.4	$213.82	-$0.58	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
ME merod	Noavg 99.8¢	$154.69	$154.15	-$0.54	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.68	$79.56	+$0.2	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$59.72	$59.69	-$0.03	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.76	$59.67	-$0.09	32% 440-926 (1366)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$35.19	$35.07	-$0.12	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$4.44	$4.34	+$4.9	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.34	$1.1	-$2.25	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$1.09	$1.09	-$2.81	49% 123-126 (249)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.42	$0.42	-$1.09	6% 14-231 (245)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$420.04	$0.24	-$60.6	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.02	55% 18-15 (33)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$3,996.29

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$8.41

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

donthackme

Invested

$624.62

Value

$623.02

PnL

-$1.6

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

smallreceipt

Invested

$479.1

Value

$478.35

PnL

-$0.74

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

influenz.eth

Invested

$393.03

Value

$392.46

PnL

+$73.05

Record

42%

10332-14359 (24691)

ghorrock

Invested

$368.73

Value

$358.07

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

godblessme2026

Invested

$214.4

Value

$213.82

PnL

-$0.58

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

merod

Invested

$154.69

Value

$154.15

PnL

-$0.54

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.68

Value

$79.56

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$59.72

Value

$59.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

akroll<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$59.67

PnL

-$0.09

Record

32%

440-926 (1366)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$35.19

Value

$35.07

PnL

-$0.12

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$4.9

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$2.25

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$2.81

Record

49%

123-126 (249)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$1.09

Record

14-231 (245)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$420.04

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$60.6

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

306h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.