Will Venezuela win Miss Universe 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $237 held · ends Nov 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$237.38
$2.77
92.6¢ → 94¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $117.1 | $117.44 | +$0.34 | 29% 887-2138 (3025) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $55.26 | $56.31 | +$1.05 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $39.74 | $37.74 | +$0.92 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $16.71 | $16.86 | +$0.15 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $7.76 | $8.06 | +$0.3 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $0.96 | $0.97 | +$0.01 | 13% 28-182 (210) |
Invested
$117.1
Value
$117.44
PnL
+$0.34
Record
29%
887-2138 (3025)
balthazar<$100Invested
$55.26
Value
$56.31
PnL
+$1.05
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$39.74
Value
$37.74
PnL
+$0.92
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$16.71
Value
$16.86
PnL
+$0.15
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.76
Value
$8.06
PnL
+$0.3
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$0.96
Value
$0.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
13%
28-182 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.