Will Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” sell for less than $150m at auction?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 74¢ · $519 held · ends Nov 19

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$519.45

Combined PnL

$0.27

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 73.8¢

-13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$222.04

Total Shares874

Combined PnL+$51.71

No7 traders

Total Value$297.41

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$51.44

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO dogerfadCTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$175.67	$219.73	+$51.79	— 6-6 (12)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 82.4¢	$242.63	$149.06	-$48.45	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
Haradwaith	Noavg 87¢	$111.37	$63.56	+$1.21	30% 250-582 (832)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$41.54	$31.68	-$0.27	43% 5158-6925 (12083)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$29.87	$27.46	-$2.41	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$15.75	$14.47	-$1.27	34% 329-653 (982)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$6.99	$6.43	-$0.56	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$4.44	$4.75	+$0.31	33% 80-164 (244)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$2.4	$2.31	-$0.09	40% 259-389 (648)

dogerfadCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.67

Value

$219.73

PnL

+$51.79

Record

—

6-6 (12)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$242.63

Value

$149.06

PnL

-$48.45

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

Haradwaith

Invested

$111.37

Value

$63.56

PnL

+$1.21

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$41.54

Value

$31.68

PnL

-$0.27

Record

43%

5158-6925 (12083)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.87

Value

$27.46

PnL

-$2.41

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$14.47

PnL

-$1.27

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$6.99

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$0.56

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.31

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.09

Record

40%

259-389 (648)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.7%

73.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.