Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” sell for between $200m and $225m at auction?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 28¢ · $451 held · ends Nov 19

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$450.84

Combined PnL

$31.33

Smart Money Entry

31.9¢ → 27.5¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$275.75

Total Shares792

Combined PnL+$24.2

No8 traders

Total Value$175.08

Total Shares285

Combined PnL+$7.12

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$180	$192.5	+$12.5	— 8-11 (19)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$70.35	$78.66	+$12.11	30% 250-582 (832)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$92.67	$56.34	+$6.64	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 62¢	$31.93	$31.67	-$0.26	33% 80-164 (244)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 62¢	$24.8	$24.6	-$0.2	34% 329-653 (982)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 62¢	$31	$23.38	+$1.97	43% 5158-6925 (12083)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$18.77	$18.46	-$0.3	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 65¢	$10.6	$10.02	-$0.57	38% 306-500 (806)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.2	$6.15	-$0.05	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$5	$4.59	-$0.4	40% 259-389 (648)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 63¢	$4.56	$4.45	-$0.11	36% 286-506 (792)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

—

8-11 (19)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.35

Value

$78.66

PnL

+$12.11

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$92.67

Value

$56.34

PnL

+$6.64

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

123987456<$100

Invested

$31.93

Value

$31.67

PnL

-$0.26

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$24.8

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$31

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$1.97

Record

43%

5158-6925 (12083)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.77

Value

$18.46

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$0.57

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.4

Record

40%

259-389 (648)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.11

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.