Will Vincent van Gogh's “Châtaigniers en fleurs” sell for between $175m and $200m at auction?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 94¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 19

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$116.5

Combined PnL

-$21.44

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$60.09

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$10.45

Yes4 traders

Total Value$56.4

Total Shares470

Combined PnL-$31.89

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81¢	$24.32	$29.42	+$5.1	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$53.36	$27.74	-$19.25	30% 251-582 (833)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 18¢	$211.14	$18.83	-$10.25	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 79¢	$11.9	$9.8	+$1.47	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$9.8	+$1.5	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 77¢	$12.55	$6.17	+$1.62	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$4.85	$5.41	+$0.56	40% 259-389 (648)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.9	+$0.75	33% 80-164 (244)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$7.37	$4.42	-$2.95	43% 5159-6926 (12085)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$24.32

Value

$29.42

PnL

+$5.1

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.36

Value

$27.74

PnL

-$19.25

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$211.14

Value

$18.83

PnL

-$10.25

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.47

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$12.55

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$1.62

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$0.56

Record

40%

259-389 (648)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.75

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.37

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$2.95

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.