Will USD be less than 2.5M Iranian rials on November 30?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 88¢ · $110 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$110.09
$1.38
92.6¢ → 88.3¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $38.46 | $38.46 | -$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $28.13 | $28.14 | +$0.01 | 25% 845-2482 (3327) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $18.75 | $18.75 | +$0 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $8.1 | $9.47 | +$1.37 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $9.38 | $9.38 | -$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 Warren-BuffettCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $5.89 | $5.89 | +$0 | — |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$38.46
Value
$38.46
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$28.13
Value
$28.14
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
845-2482 (3327)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.75
Value
$18.75
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$9.47
PnL
+$1.37
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$9.38
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100Invested
$5.89
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$0
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.