Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$109.06

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 83.4¢

-2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL+$107.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$16.61

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$1.28

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

758h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 85.4¢	$1.3K	$972.83	+$14.37	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
balthazar	Noavg 84.5¢	$424.37	$315.58	+$67.43	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
Haradwaith	Noavg 86.7¢	$104.45	$101.36	-$3.09	41% 6218-9125 (15343)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 80.3¢	$96.61	$100.5	+$3.89	56% 18295-14214 (32509)
Lucerys	Noavg 82.3¢	$119.09	$88.19	+$1.51	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$54.9	$58.98	+$4.08	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$25.67	$53.96	+$28.28	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 92¢	$37.72	$34.54	-$3.18	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$34.58	$33.7	-$0.88	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$11.8	$13.18	+$1.38	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98¢	$14.7	$12.64	-$2.06	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$9.47	$8.44	-$1.03	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$8.43	-$1.54	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$2.83	$2.83	+$0	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$0.69	$0.6	-$0.09	17% 1249-5908 (7157)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,340.17

Value

$972.83

PnL

+$14.37

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

balthazar

Invested

$424.37

Value

$315.58

PnL

+$67.43

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

Haradwaith

Invested

$104.45

Value

$101.36

PnL

-$3.09

Record

41%

6218-9125 (15343)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$96.61

Value

$100.5

PnL

+$3.89

Record

56%

18295-14214 (32509)

Lucerys

Invested

$119.09

Value

$88.19

PnL

+$1.51

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$58.98

PnL

+$4.08

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$25.67

Value

$53.96

PnL

+$28.28

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

korda77<$100

Invested

$37.72

Value

$34.54

PnL

-$3.18

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$34.58

Value

$33.7

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.8

Value

$13.18

PnL

+$1.38

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

merod<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$12.64

PnL

-$2.06

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.47

Value

$8.44

PnL

-$1.03

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$1.54

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.09

Record

17%

1249-5908 (7157)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

758h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.0%

83.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.