Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$98.1

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 75¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL+$97.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.23

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$0.24

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 75.9¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	+$65.38	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
balthazar	Noavg 74.2¢	$410.44	$370.75	+$32.28	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$176.74	$179.98	+$8.99	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.7¢	$135.1	$140.86	+$5.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.3¢	$36.08	$39.12	+$3.64
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$379.84	$177.9	-$0.4	14% 461-2758 (3219)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.1¢	$136.2	$139.53	-$52.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.9¢	$39.96	$38.37	+$52.33
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$108.63	$98.69	+$4.36	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$65.64	$71.54	+$5.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.9¢	$28.31	$27.16	-$1.32
Lucerys	Noavg 76.4¢	$110.3	$83.44	+$3.86	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$60.92	$63.2	+$2.28	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 87¢	$35.67	$32.8	-$2.87	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$21.15	$20	-$1.15	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$17.14	$17.37	+$0.24	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$51.62	$16.48	-$2.27	17% 1249-5908 (7157)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 83¢	$12.45	$12	-$0.45	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 72¢	$7.2	$8	+$0.8	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$7.04	$7.04	-$0	25% 1720-5244 (6964)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$3.82	$3.82	+$0	55% 4411-3608 (8019)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$2,078.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$65.38

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

balthazar

Invested

$410.44

Value

$370.75

PnL

+$32.28

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$176.74

Value

$179.98

PnL

+$8.99

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

Both legs:

No$135.176.7¢+$5.35

Yes$36.0820.3¢+$3.64

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$379.84

Value

$177.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

Both legs:

No$136.278.1¢-$52.73

Yes$39.9622.9¢+$52.33

ghorrockARB<$100

Invested

$108.63

Value

$98.69

PnL

+$4.36

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Both legs:

No$65.6473.4¢+$5.68

Yes$28.3122.9¢-$1.32

Lucerys

Invested

$110.3

Value

$83.44

PnL

+$3.86

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$60.92

Value

$63.2

PnL

+$2.28

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

korda77<$100

Invested

$35.67

Value

$32.8

PnL

-$2.87

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

$20

PnL

-$1.15

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.14

Value

$17.37

PnL

+$0.24

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$51.62

Value

$16.48

PnL

-$2.27

Record

17%

1249-5908 (7157)

merod<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.45

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$0

Record

25%

1720-5244 (6964)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.