Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on November 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $97 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$96.63
$4.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $25.21 | $24.9 | -$0.31 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $23.4 | $24.3 | +$0.9 | 22% 78-279 (357) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $20.02 | $23.73 | +$3.71 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $15.6 | $15.6 | +$0 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $8.19 | $8.1 | -$0.09 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.21
Value
$24.9
PnL
-$0.31
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$0.9
Record
22%
78-279 (357)
Invested
$20.02
Value
$23.73
PnL
+$3.71
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
balthazar<$100Invested
$15.6
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$8.19
Value
$8.1
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.