Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on October 31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 10¢ · $283 held · ends Nov 1

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$283.31

Combined PnL

$245.48

Smart Money Entry

21.3¢ → 10.2¢

-52% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$100.65

Total Shares553

Combined PnL+$188.97

No3 traders

Total Value$43.55

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$56.52

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

444h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9SARB<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$102.75	$139.11	+$36.36	18% 3793-17190 (20983)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.3¢	$82.55	$90.26	+$7.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.5¢	$68.32	$48.85	+$28.65
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$258.86	$93.22	+$194.94	36% 15325-27398 (42723)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$19.84	+$1.84	46% 2768-3315 (6083)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$17.21	$18.9	+$1.69	32% 4404-9461 (13865)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$13.41	$7.43	-$5.97	52% 327-297 (624)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 72.1¢	$444.25	$4.81	+$52.98	53% 6481-5684 (12165)

2B9SARB<$100

Invested

$102.75

Value

$139.11

PnL

+$36.36

Record

18%

3793-17190 (20983)

Both legs:

No$82.5582.3¢+$7.71

Yes$68.3225.5¢+$28.65

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$258.86

Value

$93.22

PnL

+$194.94

Record

36%

15325-27398 (42723)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$1.84

Record

46%

2768-3315 (6083)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$17.21

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$1.69

Record

32%

4404-9461 (13865)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.41

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$5.97

Record

52%

327-297 (624)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$444.25

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$52.98

Record

53%

6481-5684 (12165)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

444h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.6%

10.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$758.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

858.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.