Will USD be between 2.6M and 2.7M Iranian rials on November 30?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $166 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$166.47
$2.18
75.6¢ → 79¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $50 | $52.03 | +$2.03 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $45.44 | $44.99 | -$0.45 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $31.57 | $31.57 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $23.1 | +$0.6 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $7.7 | $7.7 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $38.5 | $7.08 | +$0 | — 1-18 (19) |
Invested
$50
Value
$52.03
PnL
+$2.03
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$45.44
Value
$44.99
PnL
-$0.45
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$31.57
Value
$31.57
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$0.6
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$38.5
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.