Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$149.71

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 91.5¢

+24% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,417

Combined PnL+$155.88

Yes2 traders

Total Value$11.31

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$6.17

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.6¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	+$56.96	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
balthazar	Noavg 64¢	$275.84	$313.7	+$100.69	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
2B9S	Noavg 78.3¢	$220.53	$127.02	-$37.89	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
Haradwaith	No	$103.55	$103.55	+$0	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$68.62	$72.68	+$4.06	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$59.15	$72.68	+$13.53	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$85.59	$55.19	+$3.99	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 80¢	$32.8	$37.72	+$4.92	44% 6474-8170 (14644)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$15.3	$18.4	+$3.1	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$11.67	$16.69	+$5.02	43% 3128-4187 (7315)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$13.67	$9.24	-$4.43	27% 6838-18773 (25611)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81¢	$12.58	$5.42	+$1.59	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 80¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.1	14% 461-2750 (3211)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$3.8	$2.07	-$1.74	53% 8223-7324 (15547)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,788.89

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$56.96

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

balthazar

Invested

$275.84

Value

$313.7

PnL

+$100.69

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

2B9S

Invested

$220.53

Value

$127.02

PnL

-$37.89

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

Haradwaith

Invested

$103.55

Value

$103.55

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$68.62

Value

$72.68

PnL

+$4.06

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.15

Value

$72.68

PnL

+$13.53

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$85.59

Value

$55.19

PnL

+$3.99

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

korda77<$100

Invested

$32.8

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$4.92

Record

44%

6474-8170 (14644)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$3.1

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

merod<$100

Invested

$11.67

Value

$16.69

PnL

+$5.02

Record

43%

3128-4187 (7315)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.67

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$4.43

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.58

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$1.59

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$1.74

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

754h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.