Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be less than 1.5%?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $159 held · ends Jan 29, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$159.06
$335.17
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $38.4 | $49.5 | +$11.1 | 44% 2192-2843 (5035) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 13.2¢ | $108.75 | $41.62 | +$270.71 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $11.61 | $34.36 | +$22.75 | 51% 258-247 (505) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $40.78 | $10.6 | +$0.6 | 20% 2590-10277 (12867) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $8.25 | -$0.15 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 77.6¢ | $75.68 | $6.62 | +$32.41 | 72% 13979-5358 (19337) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $4.13 | -$0.08 | 32% 2522-5398 (7920) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $5.89 | $3.65 | -$2.24 | 53% 22636-19888 (42524) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $0.16 | $0.33 | +$0.07 | 39% 5666-8726 (14392) |
Invested
$38.4
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$11.1
Record
44%
2192-2843 (5035)
Invested
$108.75
Value
$41.62
PnL
+$270.71
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$34.36
PnL
+$22.75
Record
51%
258-247 (505)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$40.78
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
20%
2590-10277 (12867)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0.15
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$75.68
Value
$6.62
PnL
+$32.41
Record
72%
13979-5358 (19337)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.13
PnL
-$0.08
Record
32%
2522-5398 (7920)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$2.24
Record
53%
22636-19888 (42524)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.07
Record
39%
5666-8726 (14392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.