Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $555 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$555.1
-$64.09
98.9¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoinTrick | Noavg 99.7¢ | $482.24 | $446.85 | -$35.4 | 98% 3157-75 (3232) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $46.5 | $46.2 | -$0.3 | 52% 4946-4559 (9505) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $36.87 | $33.09 | -$3.78 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $25.29 | $27.02 | +$1.74 | 32% 4361-9392 (13753) |
HY hymolu<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $73.11 | $1.81 | -$25.94 | 81% 26-6 (32) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.54 | $0.14 | -$0.41 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
CoinTrickInvested
$482.24
Value
$446.85
PnL
-$35.4
Record
98%
3157-75 (3232)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$46.2
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
4946-4559 (9505)
Invested
$36.87
Value
$33.09
PnL
-$3.78
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
Invested
$25.29
Value
$27.02
PnL
+$1.74
Record
32%
4361-9392 (13753)
Invested
$73.11
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$25.94
Record
81%
26-6 (32)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.41
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.