Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $615 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$615.18
-$42.02
97.7¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoinTrick | Noavg 99.6¢ | $498.13 | $483 | -$15.13 | 98% 3157-75 (3232) |
HY hymolu<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $64.71 | $38.83 | -$20.95 | 81% 26-6 (32) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $40.01 | $35.03 | -$4.97 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $33.08 | $32.36 | -$0.72 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $25.7 | $25.9 | +$0.21 | 32% 4361-9392 (13753) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.52 | $0.05 | -$0.46 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
CoinTrickInvested
$498.13
Value
$483
PnL
-$15.13
Record
98%
3157-75 (3232)
Invested
$64.71
Value
$38.83
PnL
-$20.95
Record
81%
26-6 (32)
Invested
$40.01
Value
$35.03
PnL
-$4.97
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
balthazar<$100Invested
$33.08
Value
$32.36
PnL
-$0.72
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
Invested
$25.7
Value
$25.9
PnL
+$0.21
Record
32%
4361-9392 (13753)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.46
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.