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No
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the US national average gas price be between $3.8400 and $3.8499 on November 15?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 75%
Total Value
$10.01
Combined PnL
-$29.51
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$10.01
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$4.59
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares51
Combined PnL-$24.92
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $10 | +$0.1 | 39% 339-533 (872) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $0.01 | -$4.7 | 42% 5242-7255 (12497) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 38% 3837-6288 (10125) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $77.24 | — | -$14.79 | 28% 3327-8522 (11849) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $13.22 | — | -$4.89 | 23% 812-2703 (3515) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $4.23 | — | -$4.23 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
GO
god83743894<$100Invested
$9.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.1
Record
39%
339-533 (872)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.7
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.7
Record
42%
5242-7255 (12497)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
38%
3837-6288 (10125)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$77.24
Value
—
PnL
-$14.79
Record
28%
3327-8522 (11849)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$13.22
Value
—
PnL
-$4.89
Record
23%
812-2703 (3515)
DO
donthackmeCTR<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
—
PnL
-$4.23
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xcea7b5ea...7afb08
Slug
will-us-gas-price-be-between-3pt84-and-3pt85-on-november-15-2026