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NoNoYesNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the US national average gas price be between $3.8300 and $3.8399 on November 15?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 67%
Total Value
$10
Combined PnL
-$25.85
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$10
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$15.64
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares46
Combined PnL-$10.22
No — 60%Yes — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $10 | +$0.5 | 31% 1132-2478 (3610) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $92.08 | $0 | -$11.71 | 28% 3327-8522 (11849) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 38% 3837-6288 (10125) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | — | -$4.43 | 23% 812-2703 (3515) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $19.22 | — | -$4.22 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
MI
mildwindow27<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.5
Record
31%
1132-2478 (3610)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
$92.08
Value
$0
PnL
-$11.71
Record
28%
3327-8522 (11849)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
38%
3837-6288 (10125)
LU
luciebot<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
—
PnL
-$4.43
Record
23%
812-2703 (3515)
DO
donthackmeCTR<$100Invested
$19.22
Value
—
PnL
-$4.22
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x297bdcf9...976b4b
Slug
will-us-gas-price-be-between-3pt83-and-3pt84-on-november-15-2026