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Yes
balthazarCTR<$100NoNo
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100No
HoshinoAICTR<$100NoNoNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the US national average gas price be between $3.8200 and $3.8299 on November 15?
Resolved Yes. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
No 67%
Total Value
$36
Combined PnL
$168.17
Smart Money Signal
No
7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$36
Total Shares36
Combined PnL+$30
No7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares105
Combined PnL+$138.17
Yes — 13%No — 87%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $6 | $36 | +$30 | 38% 3837-6288 (10125) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $2.7 | — | +$22.29 | 42% 5242-7255 (12497) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $8.42 | — | +$70.26 | 28% 3327-8522 (11849) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 1239-1326 (2565) |
HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $0.37 | — | -$0.37 | 26% 22-62 (84) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1 | — | +$7.33 | 35% 363-681 (1044) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $0.15 | — | +$23.68 | 23% 812-2703 (3515) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $0.13 | — | +$20.98 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$6
Value
$36
PnL
+$30
Record
38%
3837-6288 (10125)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
+$22.29
Record
42%
5242-7255 (12497)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$8.42
Value
—
PnL
+$70.26
Record
28%
3327-8522 (11849)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
1239-1326 (2565)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$0.37
Value
—
PnL
-$0.37
Record
26%
22-62 (84)
GO
godblessme2026CTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
+$7.33
Record
35%
363-681 (1044)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
+$23.68
Record
23%
812-2703 (3515)
DO
donthackmeCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
—
PnL
+$20.98
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3356e5a1...d0796a
Slug
will-us-gas-price-be-between-3pt82-and-3pt83-on-november-15-2026