Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.5K
$68.78
90.1¢ → 99.2¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 84¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | +$131.7 | 53% 1116-998 (2114) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 98.8¢ | $961.95 | $900.43 | -$61.52 | 45% 2757-3306 (6063) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 87.7¢ | $412.05 | $356.82 | -$5.81 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 89¢ | $100.54 | $104.49 | +$3.95 | 45% 1847-2279 (4126) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.75 | $1.2 | +$0.45 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
Invested
$1,597.3
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$131.7
Record
53%
1116-998 (2114)
Invested
$961.95
Value
$900.43
PnL
-$61.52
Record
45%
2757-3306 (6063)
Invested
$412.05
Value
$356.82
PnL
-$5.81
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Invested
$100.54
Value
$104.49
PnL
+$3.95
Record
45%
1847-2279 (4126)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.45
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.