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No
Bromley86No
crypto-basenji<$100NoYes
smellyEllieCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 25, 2026?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 60%
Total Value
$872.21
Combined PnL
$9.9
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$872.21
Total Shares872
Combined PnL+$23.14
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares101
Combined PnL-$13.24
No — 60%Yes — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $504.5 | $505 | +$0.5 | 99% 12713-184 (12897) |
Bromley86 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $337.17 | $347.21 | +$10.03 | 90% 717-80 (797) |
crypto-basenji<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $7.4 | $20 | +$12.6 | 38% 167-276 (443) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $136.34 | — | -$8.94 | 36% 14908-27031 (41939) |
smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $4.3 | — | -$4.3 | 50% 937-950 (1887) |
ZX
zxc368Invested
$504.5
Value
$505
PnL
+$0.5
Record
99%
12713-184 (12897)
Bromley86Invested
$337.17
Value
$347.21
PnL
+$10.03
Record
90%
717-80 (797)
crypto-basenji<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.6
Record
38%
167-276 (443)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTRInvested
$136.34
Value
—
PnL
-$8.94
Record
36%
14908-27031 (41939)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
—
PnL
-$4.3
Record
50%
937-950 (1887)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x826ec20b...5978ac
Slug
will-ukraine-target-moscow-on-october-25-2026