Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.4% and 3.6% in October?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 36¢ · $429 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$429.33
$44.77
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $151.61 | $191.66 | +$40.05 | — 2-3 (5) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 60¢ | $98.62 | $105.98 | +$7.36 | 68% 47-22 (69) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $53.88 | $54.6 | +$0.72 | — 7-1 (8) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $32.2 | $32.25 | +$0.05 | 2% 3-147 (150) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $24.01 | $23.83 | -$0.17 | 38% 93-154 (247) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $22.53 | $18.96 | -$3.57 | 54% 19-16 (35) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $1.7 | $2.03 | +$0.33 | — |
Invested
$151.61
Value
$191.66
PnL
+$40.05
Record
—
2-3 (5)
Invested
$98.62
Value
$105.98
PnL
+$7.36
Record
68%
47-22 (69)
Invested
$53.88
Value
$54.6
PnL
+$0.72
Record
—
7-1 (8)
Invested
$32.2
Value
$32.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
2%
3-147 (150)
Invested
$24.01
Value
$23.83
PnL
-$0.17
Record
38%
93-154 (247)
Invested
$22.53
Value
$18.96
PnL
-$3.57
Record
54%
19-16 (35)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$0.33
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.