Will UConn win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $192 held · ends Apr 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$191.76
-$5.63
90.3¢ → 90.8¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 90.3¢ | $114.53 | $113.87 | -$0.66 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $57.85 | $52.77 | -$5.08 | 39% 1052-1631 (2683) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $25.67 | $18.9 | +$0.11 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $4.74 | $4.7 | -$0.04 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $1.49 | $1.53 | +$0.04 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
LucerysInvested
$114.53
Value
$113.87
PnL
-$0.66
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$57.85
Value
$52.77
PnL
-$5.08
Record
39%
1052-1631 (2683)
Invested
$25.67
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0.04
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.53
PnL
+$0.04
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.