Will TSMC be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 99¢ · $363 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$362.75

Combined PnL

-$6.46

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$359.86

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$0.52

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.89

Total Shares481

Combined PnL-$5.93

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$103.18	$103.18	+$0	79% 10898-2965 (13863)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$20.47	$95.94	-$0.38	40% 843-1266 (2109)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$88.04	$87.88	-$0.16	54% 6336-5497 (11833)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.92	$39.92	+$0	60% 10619-7212 (17831)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.96	+$0.02	54% 21779-18820 (40599)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.97	$12.97	+$0	31% 2028-4546 (6574)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.18	$1.45	+$1.27	35% 17266-31860 (49126)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$92	$0.55	-$2.21	43% 2818-3713 (6531)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$2	$0.3	-$1.7	18% 231-1089 (1320)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$50	$0.3	-$1.7	30% 2226-5182 (7408)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.88	$0.28	-$1.6	17% 260-1309 (1569)

Lucerys

Invested

$103.18

Value

$103.18

PnL

+$0

Record

79%

10898-2965 (13863)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.47

Value

$95.94

PnL

-$0.38

Record

40%

843-1266 (2109)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$88.04

Value

$87.88

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

6336-5497 (11833)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

10619-7212 (17831)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

21779-18820 (40599)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$12.97

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

2028-4546 (6574)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$1.27

Record

35%

17266-31860 (49126)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$2.21

Record

43%

2818-3713 (6531)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.7

Record

18%

231-1089 (1320)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$1.7

Record

30%

2226-5182 (7408)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.88

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.6

Record

17%

260-1309 (1569)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.