Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will TSG Hoffenheim finish first in UEL league phase?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$23.48

Combined PnL

-$12.17

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$19.69

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$2.11

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.79

Total Shares638

Combined PnL-$14.28

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DavidShekel<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$17.97	$19.69	+$2.11	38% 657-1063 (1720)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$1.1	-$1.65	27% 2563-6999 (9562)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.78	-$1.17	17% 1379-6720 (8099)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$0.71	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.7	-$1.05	49% 6603-6987 (13590)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.31	-$0.47	17% 406-2034 (2440)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.47	$0.18	-$8.29	50% 925-911 (1836)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 589-1509 (2098)

DavidShekel<$100

Invested

$17.97

Value

$19.69

PnL

+$2.11

Record

38%

657-1063 (1720)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$1.65

Record

27%

2563-6999 (9562)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$1.17

Record

17%

1379-6720 (8099)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6603-6987 (13590)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

406-2034 (2440)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.47

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

925-911 (1836)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

589-1509 (2098)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.