Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on November 13, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $72 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$71.73
-$4.9
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $31 | $26 | -$1.2 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.96 | $21.22 | -$0.74 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $15.8 | +$0.2 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $6.25 | $4.75 | -$1.5 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $5.62 | $3.96 | -$1.66 | — 1-18 (19) |
Invested
$31
Value
$26
PnL
-$1.2
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$21.96
Value
$21.22
PnL
-$0.74
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$15.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$1.5
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$5.62
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$1.66
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.