Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on November 13, 2026?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 96¢ · $118 held · ends Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$118.05

Combined PnL

-$8.72

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$109

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$1.89

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.05

Total Shares181

Combined PnL-$6.83

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WarriorH	Noavg 94¢	$113.09	$109	-$1.89	— 0-12 (12)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$6.39	$6.39	-$0	— 8-9 (17)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$4.48	$1.4	-$3.08	— 1-10 (11)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.41	$0.85	-$2.56	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.68	$0.41	-$1.19	— 1-9 (10)

WarriorH

Invested

$113.09

Value

$109

PnL

-$1.89

Record

—

0-12 (12)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.39

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$0

Record

—

8-9 (17)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.48

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$3.08

Record

—

1-10 (11)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$2.56

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.68

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.19

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.