Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$1.6K
$227.08
55.3¢ → 40.5¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
55h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StarMaster | Noavg 25.6¢ | $320 | $737.5 | +$417.5 | 53% 1931-1707 (3638) |
 CosmicCedarCTR | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $488.03 | $303.82 | -$155.24 | 51% 1101-1076 (2177) |
 TheGreekTraderPMCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $213.62 | $208.69 | +$15.27 | 61% 447-289 (736) |
 GluckykluckyCTR | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $157.09 | $123.36 | -$33.73 | 81% 474-109 (583) |
 RelaccsedCTR | Yesavg 68.9¢ | $139.1 | $106.6 | -$32.5 | 56% 1312-1042 (2354) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $187.94 | $99.23 | +$6.3 | 34% 19419-36966 (56385) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 47.1¢ | $52.5 | $58.56 | +$9.48 | 17% 4506-22060 (26566) |
StarMasterInvested
$320
Value
$737.5
PnL
+$417.5
Record
53%
1931-1707 (3638)
CosmicCedarCTRInvested
$488.03
Value
$303.82
PnL
-$155.24
Record
51%
1101-1076 (2177)
TheGreekTraderPMCTRInvested
$213.62
Value
$208.69
PnL
+$15.27
Record
61%
447-289 (736)
GluckykluckyCTRInvested
$157.09
Value
$123.36
PnL
-$33.73
Record
81%
474-109 (583)
RelaccsedCTRInvested
$139.1
Value
$106.6
PnL
-$32.5
Record
56%
1312-1042 (2354)
Invested
$187.94
Value
$99.23
PnL
+$6.3
Record
34%
19419-36966 (56385)
2B9S<$100Invested
$52.5
Value
$58.56
PnL
+$9.48
Record
17%
4506-22060 (26566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.