Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$124.47
73.3¢ → 74¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Yesavg 73.4¢ | $2.1K | $730.67 | +$113.21 | 50% 953-962 (1915) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 76.1¢ | $399.22 | $340.48 | -$14.67 | 20% 322-1323 (1645) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 76.1¢ | $259 | $251.96 | -$10.48 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26.8¢ | $91.21 | $88.52 | -$4.19 | |
 PaddyAlpha | Yesavg 72.5¢ | $494.49 | $104.69 | +$20.76 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 27.9¢ | $188.19 | $13.42 | +$3.22 | 36% 15634-27552 (43186) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 29.5¢ | $80 | $4.39 | -$12.63 | 42% 5221-7152 (12373) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.5¢ | $2.78 | $2.67 | -$0.1 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
smellyEllieInvested
$2,099
Value
$730.67
PnL
+$113.21
Record
50%
953-962 (1915)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$399.22
Value
$340.48
PnL
-$14.67
Record
20%
322-1323 (1645)
Both legs:
PaddyAlphaInvested
$494.49
Value
$104.69
PnL
+$20.76
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
Invested
$188.19
Value
$13.42
PnL
+$3.22
Record
36%
15634-27552 (43186)
Invested
$80
Value
$4.39
PnL
-$12.63
Record
42%
5221-7152 (12373)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$0.1
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.