Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.9K
$50.65
94.5¢ → 96.8¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Late
3181h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slowroasted | Noavg 93.4¢ | $736.75 | $765.4 | +$28.64 | 88% 1987-279 (2266) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $619.4 | $637.32 | +$17.92 | 89% 1644-202 (1846) |
57 57284910 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $500 | $482.5 | -$4.5 | — 17-0 (17) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $7.21 | $6.29 | +$4.87 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.11 | $4.9 | +$3.71 | 47% 2029-2248 (4277) |
SlowroastedInvested
$736.75
Value
$765.4
PnL
+$28.64
Record
88%
1987-279 (2266)
elmcap2Invested
$619.4
Value
$637.32
PnL
+$17.92
Record
89%
1644-202 (1846)
Invested
$500
Value
$482.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
—
17-0 (17)
Invested
$7.21
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$4.87
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$3.71
Record
47%
2029-2248 (4277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.